The Wildest Pot Swing of the Year
Poker pro Xuan Liu analyses extraordinary game sequence from The Lodge Card Club
On the final episode of 'The Chip Race' in 2024, experienced tournament pro Xuan Liu joined Dara O'Kearney and me for a strategy segment. With two European Poker Tour (EPT) Final tables under her belt, at the PCA in 2011 and in San Remo in 2012, and a career spent largely at high-stakes cash games, Xuan certainly knew a thing or two about poker.
The straddle was in play, and the game was looser than a magician's tricks
Our usual plan is to let our guest pick the hand, and Xuan chose a rollercoaster ride of a hand from The Lodge Card Club. Played towards the end of a streamed $5/$10 game, the hand took place when the straddle was in play, and the game was looser than a magician's tricks.
Xuan's brilliant analysis broke down the action on every street, amidst some vital insights about her opponents and the table dynamics. Not surprisingly, the 5-minute clip of this hand quickly went viral, earning the 'one of the wildest pots of the year' title.
Pre-Flop
First off, Xuan fixed a couple of graphical errors. Cash game stacks sometimes get topped up unnoticed by the TV crew, and not every straddle is caught. On this occasion, her actual stack was $20,400, and there was a $25 straddle and a $50 blind bet, beefing the pot to $100 before anyone looked at their cards.
As the Hijack, Xuan sat with A♦️A♣️, a dream spot thanks to the game's dynamics. She raised to $400, and for two reasons, not just one. Firstly, her opponents were generally inelastic (larger bet-sizes didn't usually change their perceived playability), and secondly, it was the penultimate hand of the night, and the game had grown loose.
She was ready to offer her opponents some slack
Xuan explained that her choice to just call was her willingness to give her opponents some slack, so they'd likely fold if she isolated them. She was happy that the Stack-to-Pot Ratio (SPR) would be sufficiently low, even multi-way, with the powerful premium hand she held. Deception was also a factor in her calculations, as it was likely that one of her opponents would connect with the flop and commit chips into a shallow side pot in dark waters.
Flop
On the flop, the pot was $6005, and it came J♠️4♠️3♠️, giving Xuan the nuts. The Kid checked his A♠️Q♠️, and Xuan elected to check as well. Mike bet his Q♣️J♣️ to $1150, and although The Kid flat-called, Xuan remained patient. Mike, on the other hand, delved deeper, committing chips with his marginal hand into the dry side pot.
The Kid had hit the nut flush, but fear had made him lose his cool
The Kid calmly check-called with the nut flush, hoping to lure Xuan in behind and thankful that at least one player was willing to commit chips. There are times when it's better to fast-play a strong hand, but this situation wasn't one of them. Unfortunately for Xuan, the unthinkable had happened – The Kid had hit the nut flush, but fear had gotten the best of him.
Turn
On the turn, the pot grew to $9455 ($6005 in the main pot and $3450 in the side), and it came the 4♦️. Confident in her lead, The Kid and Xuan danced the turn around to Mike, who this time bet $3300, roughly a side pot-sized bet (~30% of the total). The Kid called, and with plenty at stake, Xuan decided to push all-in for $12,775. Mike called swiftly for his $10,055 total, and The Kid folded his hand.
Mike's quick call had scared The Kid right out of the pot
"Whaaaaaat?" you'd find yourself saying. And you'd be right – Mike had called, and The Kid had folded the nut flush. Breaking down the spot, Xuan agreed that Mike's snap-call had likely spooked The Kid. With quads or a full house possible but with insufficient credit, it was never wise for The Kid to give up his strong hand.
With The Nut Fold out of the picture, Xuan went from needing a 4-outer to fading just 4 outs
With The Kid out of the fray, Xuan went from needing a 4-outer to needing to fade just 4 outs, thanks to the river cards. The players decided to run the river twice, and it came the 6♣️ and 3♥️, twice in Xuan's favor, earning her a mammoth $32,865 pot. "What kind of black magic did you use to win this humongous pot?" I asked Xuan. With a perfectly deadpan delivery, she quipped, "There was a full moon that night."
In the era of growing trends in casino-and-gambling, Xuan Liu's analysis of a high-stakes poker game at The Lodge Card Club was featured, showcasing the wildest pot of the year. During the session at the $5/$10 game, armed with the premium hand A♦ A♣, Xuan demonstrates the strategic intricacies of the game by employing deception, understanding table dynamics, and manipulating opponents, eventually winning a mammoth $32,865 pot.
